Jacob Seliga

The expectations for Arizona State entering Big 12 play is to win the Big 12 and get to the College Football Playoff.

They did suffer the setback at Mississippi State, however I feel like that was the perfect reset for Kenny Dillingham to get the program back on track. The Sun Devils needed to go into a tough environment like Starkville in primetime, facing a quality Mississippi State team- who looks much improved from the 2024 version that went winless in the SEC.

Arizona State opens up Big 12 play against Baylor, and I think it’s the perfect test for the Sun Devil defense, which has kind of been up-and-down to start the year, as they did get exposed in the passing game against Mississippi State, and a little bit against Northern Arizona.

Baylor runs the air raid offense, but I think Arizona State’s experiences in these first three weeks have prepared them to go into Waco and win.

The question becomes- can Arizona State match Utah and Texas Tech in the trenches?

Outside of Texas Tech and Utah, I feel fairly confident with how weak the rest of ASU’s Big 12 schedule is, that the Sun Devils will get back to the conference championship… whether or not they win will be based upon the offense not being so reliant on WR Jordan Tyson reliant. If they’re able to run the fall effectively with Kanye Udoh, Raleek Brown, and Kyson Brown (once he’s back healthy), then I think Arizona State has just as much of an opportunity as anybody to make make it to the Big 12 championship, win, and maybe even win a playoff game this time around.

Zach Alvira

It’s clear from the reaction to Arizona State’s loss to Mississippi State that expectations are at an all-time high for the first time in years. The Sun Devils were ranked inside the top 15 entering the season, but have now stumbled out after the loss. From a national media perspective, Arizona State isn’t expected to do as much as they previously were. At least that’s the vibe that is being given off. But locally, fans especially are still expecting a successful season. 

Everyone believes in the talent Kenny Dillingham has brought into Tempe. Jordyn Tyson is now being named the No. 1 wide receiver in the 2026 NFL Draft. Sam Leavitt is being heralded as a savior of the program for his performance last season. The offensive line continues to improve and the defense still gets after it. Of course, improvements can be made, but the expectation of fans is the Sun Devils defend the conference title at a high level. It’s hard to say whether or not that title defense will result in a repeat and return to the College Football Playoff. There is still a lot of season left to be played. But anything outside of a top three finish in the conference, I believe, would leave fans disappointed and have some going to the extreme by questioning whether Dillingham can truly turn the program into a national power. 

Ralph Amsden

Going in to this season, I looked at the schedule as the first time I’d ever seen a slate where there were no guaranteed losses. Every year prior to 2025, there were games you could count with near-certainty that weren’t going to go Arizona State’s way. I never predicted 12-0, and I’m not shocked that they lost on a last second play on the road in the SEC, but with a 9-game Big 12 slate ahead, I still feel the same. I don;t see any guaranteed losses. But having watched every Big 12 team in action so far this year, here’s what I feel they’ll have to do to carve a path to the Big 12 Championship-

Offensively, the key to winning is the same in every Big 12 game- Sam Leavitt needs to limit the amount of hits he takes, and trust his receivers not named Jordyn Tyson / Chamon Metayer. I believe ASU will be able to run effectively on most teams, and with the amount that Leavitt scrambles, it’s not always easy to tell what Marcus Arroyo’s script is from game to game- but ASU needs to be a run-first team that protects the health of their dynamic QB.

But what about defensively? Here’s a game-by-game breakdown.

At Baylor: Defensive Coordinator Brian Ward has shown that he’ll give cushion to heavy-passing offenses and allow his defensive backs to come up and make plays. In Ward’s tenure, ASU faced Washington State and Cal (same OC as 2025 Baylor- Jake Spavital) in 2023, and Texas Tech last year, and in those three games combined, the QBs completed 69 passes at 10.5 yards per completion, and 6.3 yards per attempt. They went 1-2 in those games, but that was more from the offense not doing their part against Cal in 2023 and Texas Tech in 2024. In my view, the key to winning this game is disciplined tackling from the defensive backs, and pressure to force an extremely talented Sawyer Robertson to force throws.

Home vs TCU: Josh Hoover is going to get his through the air. He trusts WR Eric McAlister and will give him chances to make plays whether he’s covered or not. I’d like to see Keith Abney draw this assignment, but there’s just no way to shut this offense down without constant pressure. Clayton Smith and Prince Dorbah both need to have speed off the edge and put Hoover on his back (legally) early and often. Hoover will make mistakes, but he also has a short memory, and isn’t afraid of third and long- so ASU has to match that energy and not get dejected if they give up a few big plays.

At Utah: Arizona State has a lot of talent and discipline at the linebacker position. They’ll need it, because Utah QB Devon Dampier is a Khalil Tate style runner. If Keyshaun Elliot, Jordan Crook, and Zyrus Fiaseu play fast, and make tackles, they can bottle Dampier up the way that Texas Tech did. Dampier kills lesser athletes, but Arizona State doesn’t have that issue on defense. I trust the talent in this game.

Home vs Texas Tech: We’ll see who’s at QB for the Red Raiders, because that changes the strategy up a bit. If it’s Behren Morton, playing off the receivers and bringing pressure was a great strategy in 2024, and there’s no reason to abandon that strategy. If the Red Raiders are starting freshman Will Hammond by that point, Brian Ward might have to get creative with some pressures and zones to bait the young, confident gunslinger into some bad decisions. I actually think Hammond is the more dangerous option for ASU’s defense- he’s more mobile, supremely confident, and will challenge DBs despite tight coverage. ASU fans should root for Morton to be the starter here.

Home vs Houston: Houston is the team you sell out against to stop the run. Connor Weigman is a smart, veteran QB- but the Cougars aren;t exactly counting on him to go out and win them games. He has 15 completions in all three of their early season victories, meanwhile the Cougars average as many rushing attempts per game (45) as Weigman has total pass completions.

at Iowa State: Defensive strategy against Iowa State, in my view, involves an intentional effort to cover the tight ends and running backs and not allow them to get yardage after the catch when Rocco Becht checks down. The Cyclones are going to get yards on the ground if RBs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama are healthy, and that’s why its important for ASU’s offense to build a lead and dissuade Iowa State from running the ball on first and second down the way that OC Taylor Mouser wants to. Negative plays are a huge factor here- Iowa is a hellcat in 3rd and short, and a kitten in 3rd and long.

Home vs West Virginia: Rich Rodriguez loves to run. His last two years at Jacksonville State, he put up 6500 yards of offense on the ground alone. ASU fans remember Rich Rod going an entire second half without throwing a single pass in a blowout Territorial Cup win for Arizona- it’s fair to assume his offensive intent hasn’t changed. This is dangerous later in the season, when defenses are banged up, but hopefully the massive talent disparity, and home crowd, will allow the Sun Devils to impose their will.

at Colorado: I have no idea what Colorado will even look like by this point in the season. They’ve already played multiple quarterbacks that give them different strengths. To me, the mobility and experience of Kaidon Salter is the biggest challenge, but it’s possible they’ve handed the reins to the 5-star freshman Juju Lewis by this point. Ryan Staub is probably the best pure passer- in every situation, the key is pressure.

Home vs Arizona: So much can change between now and late November, but as it stands right now, Arizona’s offense is heavily reliant on the dynamic play of RB Ismail Madhi (who ASU faced last year when he played for Texas State) and slot WR Javin Whatley. If these guys are healthy- it’s a pick-your-poison. This isn’t an offense you stop, but it is one you can contain by seeking to keep Noah Fifita in the pocket- this might be a bend-but-don’t-break strategy, but the biggest help to the defense would be for the offense to create a lead, and eliminate the Wildcats ability to run a full playbook.

Prediction: I think Arizona State’s floor in the Big 12 is similar to 2024- 7-2 in conference, with the most dangerous games being TCU and Texas Tech, which is why it’s great fortune that those games are played at home. I view Houston as a 2024 Cincinnati-style trap game, and think the most decisive win will come on the road at Boulder against Deion Sanders.

I have ASU at a most-likely final record of 9-3, and as long as they split with TCU and Texas Tech, and don’t lose in Ames against Iowa State, they’ll have a repeat trip to the Big 12 champinoship.